Economic review likely to come in one section, growth rate may be 9%

The Finance Ministry may release the Economic Survey for the year 2021-22 in a section, in which the growth rate for the next financial year (2022-23) can be estimated at about nine percent.  The survey, to be tabled in Parliament by the Finance Minister ahead of the Union Budget, is being prepared by the Principal Economic Adviser and other officials in the absence of the Chief Economic Adviser (CEA).  It is traditionally prepared under the leadership of the CEA.

However, in July 2014, the first economic review of the Narendra Modi government was prepared by senior economic advisor Ila Patnaik and tabled in Parliament by the then finance minister Arun Jaitley.  The post of CEA was vacant after the appointment of Raghuram Rajan as the Governor of the Reserve Bank of India at that time.  Later, Arvind Subramaniam was appointed CEA in October 2014.

According to estimates by the National Statistical Office (NSO), the economy is expected to grow at 9.2 per cent during the current fiscal, which is lower than the 9.5 per cent growth rate projected by the Reserve Bank.  The economy contracted by 7.3 per cent during 2020-21 due to the outbreak of COVID-19 and the subsequent nationwide lockdown to contain the spread of the virus.

The impact of the virus on the economy was comparatively less during the current financial year as the lockdowns were localized and did not cause large-scale disruption of economic activity.  Citing the base effect, experts said the review for the next financial year can project a growth rate of around nine per cent.

According to a recent World Bank report, India is projected to grow at 8.7 per cent, while India Ratings and Research said it expects India’s gross domestic product (GDP) to grow at 7.6 per cent in FY2023.  could.